Monday, September 27, 2004
|If the Election Were Held Today|
321 Electoral Votes
|217 Electoral Votes
153 solid, 64 close
Today's analysis: The five national polls that began 9/20 or later show Bush margins of 4, 4, 6, 7, and 8, averaging out to a 6-point Bush lead. Good news for Bush in Florida: Gallup now gives him a narrow edge. Good news for Kerry in Pennsylvania: A thorough Temple University poll confirms his small lead there. New Hampshire, where Bush had a lead outside the margin, is now a tie (we keep it in Bush's column for the time being), and both Arizona and Missouri have slipped from solid Bush to close Bush. Even Virginia is closer than expected. The trend seems generally in Kerry's favor.