Thursday, September 02, 2004
Red State/Blue State
"High fertility . . . correlates strongly with support for George W. Bush. Of the top 10 most fertile states, all but one voted for Bush in 2000. Among the 17 states that still produce enough children to replace their populations, all but two--Iowa and Minnesota--voted for Bush in the last election. Conversely, the least fertile states--a list that includes Maine, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Connecticut--went overwhelmingly for Al Gore. Women living in Gore states on average have 12 percent fewer babies than women living in Bush states. . . .
In states where Bush won a popular majority in 2000, the average woman bears 2.11 children in her lifetime--which is enough to replace the population. In states where Gore won a majority of votes in 2000, the average woman bears 1.89 children, which is not enough to avoid population decline. Indeed, if the Gore states seceded from the Bush states and formed a new nation, it would have the same fertility rate, and the same rapidly aging population, as France--that bastion of "old Europe." . . ."